Mao, Bolin

My Belief in Economic Research

A theory can be provisionally accepted only after receiving one of the following confirmations:

• Controlled experiments with replicable results (strong confirmation).

• Illustrating predictive power (semi-strong confirmation).

• Replicated observational evidence (weak confirmation).

Research Interest

• Applied (Econometrics, Statistics, and Machine Learning) 

  • Observational study 

  • Prediction model for practical application

• Behavioral Finance 

Education

• Ph.D. in Economics, Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University (2023)

• M.A. in Economics, Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University (2018)

• B.S. in Microelectronics, School of Information Science and Technology, Fudan University (2015)

Employment 

• 2024.8 - present Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University

• 2023.4 - 2024.7 Assistant Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University

• 2021.10 - 2023.3 Research Fellow, Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University

Publication

• Tse, T.T.K., Hanaki, N., and Mao, B. (2024). Beware the performance of an algorithm before relying on it: Evidence from a stock price forecasting experiment. Journal of Economic Psychology, Volume 102, 102727.

Working Papers

• • Hanaki, N., Mao, B., Tse, T.T.K., and Zhou, W. (2024). Valuing Algorithms Over Experts: Evidence from a Stock Price Forecasting Experiment. [PDF]

  • Tomizawa, Y. and Mao, B. (2024). Analyzing the Impact of Mobility Restrictions and Vaccination Rates on COVID-19’s Effective Reproduction Number Using Markov Decision Process Models.

  • Mao, B., Nishiyama, Y., Tomizawa, Y., Suzuno, T., and Komura, N. (2024). Effect of Japanese COVID-19 Policy: Public Mobility, Infection Rate, and Individual Consumption. 

  • Mao, B., Chu, C., Nakashima, Y., and Nagahara, H. (2022). Efficient Market Hypothesis Test with Stock Tweets and Natural Language Processing Models. KIER DP 1082. [PDF]

  • Mao, B. (2022) Is Stock Portfolio’s Dense Subset Better ?

Ongoing Projects 

Policy on Health and Welfare

• • • Heterogeneous Treatment Effect of Japanese Specially Issued Pension Insurance. (with Inoue, Y.)

Credit Risk

• • • A Credit Rating System for Japanese Private Company. (with Kevkhishvili, R.)

Behavioral Finance

• • • Mixture of Reward Structure Makes Mitigation on Ruin Risk Taking: An Experiment. (with Tse, T.T.K. and Hanaki, N.)

Gender Study

• • • Status Belief Matters: Spouse Relative Income, Employment Form, and Housework Gender Inequality in Japan. (with Zhang, Y. and Wang, T.)

Presentations

• 2025

  • TDB-CAREE Symposium, Hitotsubashi University.

• 2024

  • Experimental Economics Seminar, ISER, Osaka University

  • TDB-CAREE, Hitotsubashi University.

  • COVID-19 Data Analysis Symposium, Institute of Statistical Mathematics.

• 2023

  • Experimental Economics Seminar, ISER, Osaka University.

  • CAPS, KIER, Kyoto University.

  • Workshop on Recent Developments in Econometric Theory and Its Applications 2022, KIER, Kyoto University.

• 2021

  • Econometrics Seminar, KIER, Kyoto University.

• 2020

  • BBL Seminar, GSE, Kyoto University.

• 2018

  • BBL Seminar, GSE, Kyoto University.

Last updated: February 12, 2025